A post by Tradeviews, a specialist research and advisory business focused on the analysis of Maritime Trade Data.
Note: These bullet points summarize the forecasts and developments mentioned in the original report, available on request.
Steel Industry:
OECD estimates steelmaking capacity additions in 2023-2025 to total 166 million tonnes, leading to increased demand for 196 million tonnes of iron ore, 94 million tonnes of coking coal, and 58 million tonnes of scrap.
Capacity additions are concentrated in Asia, with blast furnaces accounting for 55%.
Concerns exist about excess capacity being pushed into world markets due to capacity additions in regions with stagnant or declining demand.
Europe is gradually replacing blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces and DRI projects alongside.
Power Coal:
China's raw coal production in May 2023 increased by 4.2% YoY.
India's domestic coal output in May 2023 rose by 7.1% YoY.
India extends the timeline for power plants operating on imported coal to run at full capacity until the end of September due to a severe heatwave.
Italy may shut down its coal-fired power stations in 2024 if gas prices remain low.
Philippines' Semirara Mining diversifies coal exports to Japan and reduces reliance on China.
Aluminium Industry:
Global primary aluminium production in May 2023 increased by 0.6% YoY, with China accounting for 59%.
Global alumina production rose to 11.918 million tonnes in May, up 1% MoM in terms of average daily output.
Rio Tinto plans to expand its "low-carbon" aluminium smelter in Quebec, Canada.
Agribulk:
USDA forecasts minor adjustments to 2022/23 export trade forecasts for wheat and coarse grains.
Weather patterns, including El Nino, threaten agricultural producers across Asia.
Australia's winter crop production is predicted to decline due to the El Nino weather pattern.
EU to phase out temporary restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed.
Flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine affects agriculture.
Fertilisers:
Angola's Cabinda Phosphate Fertiliser Plant will be constructed, fed by output from the Cacata Phosphate mine.
NeuRizer advances plans for a 1 million tonne/year urea plant in South Australia.
Bangladesh imports 180,000 tons of muriate of potash from Russia.
OCP plans to invest $7 billion in an ammonia plant in Morocco using green hydrogen.
Koch Fertilizer revamps its Fort Dodge plant in Iowa, increasing ammonia production capacity.
Forest Products:
Australia resumes softwood log exports to China after the ban due to bark beetle infestation.
Canada experiences a severe spring wildfire season, impacting sawmills and raising lumber prices.
German sawmill industry reports poor business conditions and significant production reductions.
New Zealand strengthens forestry cooperation with China.
Viet Nam's wood exports decline due to falling demand in major markets.
Cement Industry:
Argentina's cement market contracts by 1.5% YoY in May 2023.
Brazil's cement market grows by 1.2% YoY in May 2023.
New cement plants commence production in Cambodia, Laos, and Ethiopia.
CMS Cement plans to expand clinker capacity in Malaysia.
BUA Cement secures loans to construct two new cement plants in Nigeria.
Heidelberg inaugurates a new cement plant in Indiana, USA.
Posted on July 14, 2023
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