28 November 2025 Kpler
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the market awaits what could be major changes in economic policy, and geopolitical positioning for the United States. This includes a focus on Iran and OPEC+. It is currently our base case that a Trump administration will take very seriously the price of oil given the downstream impacts on gasoline prices. In Trump’s first term, rising gasoline prices were often a catalyst for aggressive tweets calling on Saudi, and the OPEC+ block of countries more broadly, to pump more oil.
Our official Brent spot forecast expects an average price of roughly $75/bbl next year, down from what we expect will be an $81/bbl average this year. Broadly speaking, we feel an $80/bbl upper limit on spot Brent is likely. Any time prices move above this level, the White House will likely pressure OPEC to pump more oil, many members of which will be happy to oblige. This will help to offset any loss of Iranian volumes if Trump decides to escalate the current Middle Eastern conflict with Israel or pressure China to purchase fewer Iranian barrels. At present, Iran is exporting nearly 1.6 Mbd, up from roughly 500 kbd when Trump left office in early-2020.
Daily US Spot Unleaded Gasoline Price ($/gal, left) and State of Economy Survey (right)
Source: EIA/YouGov
Trump was certainly more successful than Biden at capping gasoline prices, albeit this was in part a result of external factors. Biden was forced to deal with surging demand in the immediate post-Covid years, a war in Ukraine, and an OPEC+ organization that did not share an amenable relationship with the White House. Over the course of Biden’s term, average retail unleaded gasoline prices held at $3.33/gal, with a standard deviation of nearly $0.46/gal, implying high amounts of volatility. During Trump’s first term in office, prices averaged just $2.38/gal, with a standard deviation of $0.27/gal.
It is conceivable that Trump will once attempt to keep gasoline prices under control over the next four years. Trump has long held an innate awareness that consumer sentiment declines quickly as gasoline prices move towards extreme levels (>$3.50/gal). But what should we expect when it comes to the average gasoline price in 2025? If we assume on average a $3/bbl discount on WTI ($72/bbl) against Brent next year, this implies a roughly $2.80/gal price for US retail unleaded gasoline, which is $0.42/gal below the 12-month average through October of this year.
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