20 February 2025 eeSea
We kick off this analysis with the knowledge that many service versions have already begun, but it will still be a couple of weeks before many of these maiden voyages on Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance services reach their first ports of discharge on the Northern European and Mediterranean shores.
Trade capacity evolution during transitions
Two major factors that contribute to the proforma capacity slump observed in February on all E/W trades are the alignment between the early Lunar New Year and alliance transitions, and the fact that there is no hard cut-off for end/start dates across old and new alliance services. This means that there are long periods of lull in planned sailings where a service like The Alliance’s MD3 will have sailings into its first port of discharge suspended by week 10, but arrivals on Premier Alliance’s MD3 are not planned to arrive until week 14. This is not taking into account any actual delays that would be accrued and built into live forecasts along the way.
Alliance transitions coinciding with the Lunar New Year mean that while blank sailings are used for both strategic purposes like offsetting delays on first voyages, they also allow carriers to suspend some services ‘early’ instead of inserting blanks as they usually would in the corresponding holiday weeks in January or February. You can read more about this phenomenon and its impact on capacity in the Far East - West Coast North America analysis, our analysis of the PMR - PS3, or in the recent article by our friends at Journal of Commerce.
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