09 January 2025 Windward
Media outlets reported that Finnish authorities have seized a ship in the Baltic Sea on suspicion it caused the outage of an undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia.
This ship, known as the Eagle S, docked in Ust Luga, Russia on December 23, 2024. It disabled its AIS signal for ten hours, reappearing two days later on December 25. That evening, the vessel sailed slowly above the undersea Estlink 2 power cable in the Gulf of Finland, coinciding with a sudden cable outage.
Windward’s AI models classified the Eagle S as a moderate sanctions compliance and security risk. Key factors contributing to this assessment include:
Lack of P&I insurance: a red flag in the maritime industry
Flagged by the gray fleet model: the vessel was carrying 35,000 tonnes of Russian petrol when it was apprehended
Flag of convenience: registered under the Cook Islands and classed by the Indian Class Society
Spy ship capabilities: the Eagle S had numerous transmitting and receiving devices, transforming it into a potential surveillance asset for Russia
Source: Windward
The Importance of Early Intelligence
This is the third undersea cable damaged in the Baltic region in the past few months. These incidents highlight the growing vulnerability of underwater critical infrastructure – a pressing issue tied closely to national security, resilience, and geopolitics.
In November, two undersea internet cables were suddenly disrupted, with one of them being the C-LION1, the only direct connection of its kind between Finland and Central Europe. Consequent reports strengthened the suspicion that this was an act of deliberate sabotage.
Windward Early Detection flagged suspicious activities in the Baltic Sea, weeks before the C-Lion disruption. Such insights, when acted on promptly, can avert potential crises by alerting law enforcement agencies ahead of time.
The Blurred Line Between Military and Commercial Activity
According to Windward insights, over the past six months, nearly 26,000 area visits have been made by approximately 1,400 Shadow Fleet vessels or Russian-related vessels.
The Eagle S exemplifies the growing overlap between commercial and paramilitary operations. With surveillance equipment aboard a merchant vessel, the question arises: are these ships truly commercial or covertly government-operated? This ambiguity is further complicated by UNCLOS, which allows freedom of passage for merchant vessels but excludes intelligence gathering under Article 19, 2. (c). Proving breaches of innocent passage could lead to significant legal and operational consequences.
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