12 December 2024 Lloyd's List
Shipping companies were warned to exercise caution and seafarers were told to avoid Syria altogether as Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator for 24 years, reportedly touched down in Moscow after rebels seized control of Damascus, the Syrian capital.
The immediate implications for shipping, however, were reverberating largely throughout the Iranian dark fleet, which has supplied the majority of Syria’s energy imports over recent years.
Initial attention was focused on the Iranian suezmax tanker Lotus (IMO: 9203784) that made a U-turn in the Gulf of Suez on Sunday as the full extent of the rebel victory in Syria, led by the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, became clear.
According to TankerTrackers, Lotus was due to deliver about 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, but the change of direction immediately called into question what happens next.
The immediate options for Lotus are limited with the cargo heading back to Iran on Monday. The crude could be returned to onshore tanks, or Lotus could be used as floating storage off Iran. While it is possible the suezmax would head east for a ship-to-ship transfer, weak Chinese demand suggests that is the least likely immediate option.
But the implications of Lotus’ U-turn are much wider than this single cargo.
“The political landscape suggests this new regime is more aligned with Western countries, which could mean less of a reliance on imports from Iran, which has been its sole crude supplier in recent years,” explained Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian.
Syria’s crude imports from Iran, which supplied its Banias refinery, stood at the around 90,000 barrels per day mark in 2023 and fell to about 60,000-70,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to Vortexa data.
“If these barrels are now pushed away from Syria, we could see Iran’s crude exports decline by between 60,000-70,000 barrels per day as they don’t have another outlet for these barrels other than China, which is already reducing purchases of Iranian crude,” said Azizian.
If the trade between Iran and Syria subsides, some of those tankers could be left unemployed suggesting Iran’s floating storage could rise, at least in the short term.
Much of Syria’s seaborne trade is conducted by ships with AIS turned off, making precise import figures unreliable.
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