12 April 2024 Vortexa
Key report takeaways:
Review of latest trends in Russian oil exports with a focus on products
Gasoil/diesel exports are inevitably set to fall
This is already a function of seasonal maintenance and rising domestic demand
Ukrainian drone attacks may aggravate the situation, but this is not a given on a year-on-year basis
A lot of Russian product is stuck at sea currently
Most pronounced for gasoil/diesel and Baltic exports
Increased scrutiny and awareness of sanctions may be a contributing factor
Review of long-term adjustments in Russian product exports and European (US) products flows
Look at diesel, light distillates, residual fuels
Russia’s total oil and product exports fall below seasonal norm since mid 2023; seasonal 0.5mbd product exports fall in the works
Any changes in Russian crude and product exports need to be assessed in the context of seasonality and longer-term averages
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