5 September 2024 Ambrey
A. Executive Summary
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly authorized a direct attack on Israel.
Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, announced an inevitable response.
High likelihood of retaliatory strikes by Iran and Hezbollah targeting Israeli military sites.
Possible Iranian targeting of Israeli-owned shipping in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea.
Hezbollah may target critical national infrastructure in addition to military sites.
B. Situation
Senior leaders of Iran-backed groups were assassinated:
Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in Beirut on 30 July.
Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed responsibility for Shukr’s assassination.
Israel denied involvement in an airstrike in Iran related to Haniyeh’s death, but tensions remain high.
Hezbollah has consistently attacked northern Israel, particularly along the Confrontation Line and Golan.
C. Analysis
Likely Iranian retaliation similar to April 2024 events but on a larger scale:
◌ Israel assassinated IRGC commander Mohammed Zahedi in April 2024.
◌ Iran seized an Israel-affiliated container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
◌ Coordinated attacks using UAVs and missiles targeted Israeli military bases.
◌ Israel responded with a limited attack on an Iranian S-300 air defense system.
Possible expansion in scope to include critical infrastructure and saturation of Israeli defenses.
Likelihood of US military sites being targeted by Iranian proxies, with remote chances of direct attacks on US-affiliated ships.
Low probability of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, as it would be self-damaging.
Heightened risk to ports like Haifa and Beirut if critical infrastructure is targeted.
Potential for an Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon if civilian targets are hit, escalating regional conflict.
D. Mitigation
Merchant shipping calling Israeli and Lebanese ports should prepare contingency plans, including:
◌ Port and vessel-specific risk assessments.
◌ Emergency contact identification for ambulance and firefighting services.
◌ Thresholds for suspending operations.
◌ Plan of action for departures without pilot availability.
◌ Shelter-in-place locations for crew if the vessel cannot depart.
◌ Nominating responsible individuals for decisions.
◌ Training and decision recording systems.
◌ Evacuation plans for crew unable to leave via merchant vessels or air.
◌ Mental health support for crew members.
Iranian targeting of merchant shipping is based on ownership, though misidentification has occurred.
Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz should conduct affiliation checks and risk assessments, potentially avoiding the area.
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