19 September 2024 Lloyd's List
The fallout from the Red Sea crisis has led to a recalibration of discretionary box cargoes circulating in the region, with far-reaching consequences not just for local ports but for those much further afield too.
Shipping schedules and timetables on the lucrative east-west trades have experienced significant disruption, with carriers left with little choice but to skip sailings and limit port calls to maintain schedules.
An analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel tracking data and port volume data through the first half of 2024 reveals the true extent of the effect on trade flows, as carriers continue their impromptu migration south around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi missiles and other weaponry.
For some ports, it has meant a welcome unprecedented uptick in business. For others, whose transhipment offering is no longer to the convenience of carriers serving east-west trades, its effect has been significantly negative, particularly those that rely on those all-important wayport calls.
Lloyds’ List Intelligence shows that through the first six months of 2024, the combined sum of capacity calling KAP was down 88% compared with the first half of the past year. This included a 97.8% fall in ships with a capacity of 10,000 teu-15,000 teu from 183 in the past year to just four in 2024. In terms of 15,000+ teu units, only one such vessel called KAP in the first half of 2024, compared with 100 in the past year.
Although KAP does not publish half-year volume figures, this drastic drop from calls of ultra-large tonnage suggests equally extreme declines.
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