When faced with the two-pronged issue of Panama Canal transit difficulty plus the possibility of attacks in the Red Sea, gas carrier operators are driven to make altering navigational decisions, and the Cape of Good Hope (COGH) is proving a viable route. Since the attacks on non-Israeli vessels transiting the Red Sea began in mid-December, we are tracking 32 gas carriers (LPG and LNG carriers) transiting West of Suez-to-East of Suez via the Cape of Good Hope. 26 of these vessels are likely following this trajectory due to ongoing Panama Canal transit issues instead of geopolitical developments unfolding in the Middle East.
Panama Canal transits for LPG carriers remain low, though laden transits numbers are recovering slightly so far in January. Both alternate waypoints – COGH and Suez – have a similar duration for most East of Suez destinations for North American-origin voyages, so some operators may prefer the COGH to avoid Suez Canal costs. Similar numbers of LNG carriers are transiting via COGH. This behaviour is also occurring on the ballast leg from EoS-to-WoS, especially as Northbound transit numbers for ballast LPG carriers via the Panama Canal have remained under pressure, hovering around just 1 vessel per day.
A report from Vortexa posted on January 18, 2024.
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