The war in Ukraine and resulting international sanctions affected Russia sufficiently that it had to change its primary economic policies. The Russian economy transitioned from a peacetime to a wartime economy, and, as a result, Russia’s third quarter 2023 had a 5.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) increase. An important component of this economic rebound is oil and gas revenues. Sanction loopholes, coupled with Russian resourcefulness, have helped the nation circumvent international law and maintain economic growth. Russia has continued to export oil with minimal hindrance, and that income is being funnelled into the military-industrial complex to pay for the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia has rerouted oil flows to nations such as China and India, and that oil ultimately reaches Western countries after being refined. With the Urals price exceeding the $60 price cap since 11 July 2023, there is an increased need to evaluate sanctions compliance.
Western media has reported on a so-called shadow fleet responsible for a series of shady operations at sea and able to move sanctioned oil. Ship-to-ship (STS) transfers remain a significant aspect of Russian oil smuggling in line with other state-led operations.
A New Hub for STS?
Findings seems to suggest the existence of a previously not as well-known STS site related to Russian oil off the Constanța coastline, approximately 500 meters outside Romanian national waters.33 European sanctions prohibit registered entities in member nations from providing any technical assistance to Russian tankers, among other restrictions.34 Absent an already exposed vessel of interest, the authors prefer to focus on an iconic instance of possible malfeasance.
The so-called Vessel C is an aging ship currently involved in moving Russian oil. The tanker came from an oil terminal in Russia. The details of her route reveal several anomalies, including that she often lingers in the Black Sea, just outside Romania’s territorial waters.
The tanker is covered by a Western company for potential oil-spill liability. Moreover, the ship is owned by a single-vessel entity located within a residential building in a Middle Eastern suburb and operated by a firm overseeing seven other aged oil tankers. Consequently, this ship should be included as part of the grey fleet.
The Vessel C is believed to have loaded oil when Urals blend was traded from $63 to $66 per barrel. Satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 show a possible STS transshipment between the Vessel C and another ship—the Vessel D—that is often spotted in the same area.
According to AIS data, the draught of the Vessel C decreased, indicating she may have unloaded oil. It is possible the oil was purchased below the cap and that it met all the required standards and certifications. In that case, the transfer could have been regular—although doubts can be raised, as Urals prices have exceeded the threshold since July 2023.
This STS is shown in one of the Sentinel-2 images (see Figure 10), and it is not the only occurrence in the region, as other AIS data and satellite imagery seem to confirm.
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