17 October 2024 Kpler
Kpler Insight has slightly decreased the global supply forecast for 2024 by 0.7 mt, bringing the total supply projection to 416.2 mt (+3.3 mt year-over-year growth). Supply projections for 2025 have increased by 3.7 mt, reaching 435.5 mt (+19.3 mt year-over-year). LNG exports in September totaled 33.3 mt, reflecting a 2% decline from August.
Additionally, Kpler Insight made a net downward adjustment of 0.4 mt to the Q4 2024 supply forecast, which now stands at 109.4 mt. This adjustment was mainly due to delays at the Plaquemines and Freeport debottlenecking projects in the US, with both projects now anticipated to start up in January 2025. Minor reductions were also made to Bruneian and Malaysian exports due to declining natural gas production and lower utilization rates, respectively. Conversely, supply projections were revised upwards for Australian and Russian LNG exports, as natural gas production in these regions is expected to remain strong through the winter. Overall, the quarter's supply was projected to reach 109.4 mt (+1% quarter-over-quarter).
LNG supply change for Q4 2024 compared to Kpler Insight’s September report:
Source: Kpler Insight
For 2025, global LNG supply was slightly lowered to 435.5 mt (a 0.1 mt reduction compared to the previous report). This was largely attributed to delays in project start-ups within the Atlantic Basin, including reduced Arctic LNG 2 loadings in Russia and expectations of delays in the US (specifically Plaquemines and Golden Pass) and Qatar (NFE), pushing some supply into early 2026. Supply forecasts were also lowered for Brunei, Egypt, and Trinidad & Tobago due to feedgas issues. On the other hand, supply gains were noted across various regions, with Algeria leading due to upward revisions in utilization rates at the Bethioua and Skikda plants. LNG exports from Australia and the Russian Far East are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Furthermore, progress is ongoing at LNG Canada, which is still on track to start in January 2025, with Train 2 now anticipated to begin operations in July 2025.
LNG supply change for 2025 compared to Kpler Insight’s September report:
Source: Kpler Insight
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