12 December 2024 Kpler
Downward revisions to December supply have nearly doubled the deficit for the final month of the year, but the rest of the global crude and condensate balance has seen limited changes. The trend of persistent surpluses through the first five months of 2025 is set to weigh on crude prices.
September’s deficit has remained the same, while a narrowing surplus in October has been due to a dip in refining activity being delayed until November instead. These lower runs than previously expected, particularly in Europe and Russia, have lifted November’s surplus close to 900 kbd. As for Q4, supply has been revised lower by 440 kbd, while demand has been ratcheted down by 350 kbd. Revisions in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq) and North America (both Canada and the US) account for most of the supply-side adjustments, while widespread downward revisions across Europe, as well as Russia and Asia, account for the weaker demand side of the picture.
As for 2025 revisions, January’s surplus has narrowed slightly, February and March are little changed, April’s surplus has widened (due to Brazilian refinery maintenance), and May's surplus has increased slightly. On the aggregate, the surplus over the first five months of next year averages 1.3 Mbd, which compares to 560 kbd in 2023 and 490 kbd in 2024. If every barrel of this surplus makes its way into inventories, then stocks would rise by 200 Mbbls over the period. In contrast to the start of the year, the latest revisions have caused the monthly deficits for June, July and August to all widen. After inventory builds are set to weigh on prices through 1H 2025, strong demand should encourage higher prices in the second half of the year.
Global crude and condensate balance, kbd
OPEC+ Production
OPEC+ crude output rose by nearly 400 kbd m/m in November, driven by Kazakhstan's Kashagan field resuming operations after maintenance and the commissioning of two new FPSOs in Brazil. Libya's production also rebounded to pre-September outage levels.
Meanwhile, the bloc's major producers have intensified efforts to improve compliance. Saudi Arabia's output declined, partly due to maintenance activities at the Yanbu refinery, while both Russia and Iraq brought their production closer to their respective quotas, signalling stronger adherence to the group's targets.
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